In August 2017, the Guangdong manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 50.9, down 1 from the previous month.2 percentage points (see chart 1), returning to 51 since April.The area around 0 fluctuates。This month's decline in the index is mainly affected by the decline in production and new orders, new export orders are relatively stable, indicating that the trend of domestic demand expansion has weakened。Overall, since the beginning of this year, the manufacturing PMI index in our province has continued to be in the expansion range, and the industrial economy has shown a steady trend of progress。The sub-indicators mentioned above are as follows:
Figure 1 Trend chart of manufacturing PMI in Guangdong Province from January 2013 to August 2017
The production index (volume of production) is 52.6, down 2 from the previous month.2 percentage points, 0 percent higher than last year.Three percentage points。This month's production index, though down from the previous month, is still at 52.In the higher range above 0, the production of manufacturing enterprises continued to expand。
The new orders index (product orders) was 51.7, down 2 from the previous month.1 percentage point, has been on the line of growth or contraction for 18 consecutive months, indicating that business orders still continue to improve, but the trend of demand expansion has weakened。Among them, the new export orders index was 50.4, slightly down from the previous month.Two percentage points。Therefore, the main reason for the decline of the new orders index is the lack of domestic demand。
The raw materials inventory index was 50.3, up 0. 0 from the previous month.Seven percentage points。Since the beginning of this year, the raw material inventory index has been fluctuating around the line of growth and contraction, and enterprises "set production by sales and prepare materials by production", and the willingness to expand production is not strong。
The employment index (production and operation personnel) was 48.8, down 0 from the previous month.8 percent, the number of businesses hiring fell for two consecutive months。
The supplier delivery time index is 49.7, up 0. 0 from the previous month.3 percentage points, the index has risen for two consecutive months, and is close to the line of growth and contraction, indicating that supplier delivery time has stabilized。
Figure 2 Trend chart of sub-index of manufacturing PMI in Guangdong Province from January 2013 to August 2017
Table Table of major sub-indexes of manufacturing PMI of Guangdong Province from August 2016 to August 2017
In August 2017, the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) of Guangdong's electronic information industry was 55.0, unchanged from the previous month;The purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for electrical machinery and special equipment was 50.9, up 0. 0 from the previous month.Four percentage points;The purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the food and beverage sector was 54.4, up 3 from the previous month.2 percentage points;The purchasing managers' index (PMI) for the textile and garment industry was 46.9, up 1 from the previous month.Three percentage points;The purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for petroleum and chemicals was 48.5, down 2 from the previous month.Nine percentage points;The purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for auto manufacturing is 50.2, down 3 from the previous month.Eight percentage points;The pharmaceutical manufacturing purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.6, down 2 from the previous month.Five percentage points;The Forest paper purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is 50.9, up 3 from the previous month.Four percentage points。
Expert interpretation
Chen Hongyu, a professor at the Party School of the Provincial Party Committee and a special expert on the interpretation of the provincial PMI index, believes that the Guangdong manufacturing PMI index was 50 in August.9, the 18th consecutive month on the line between growth and contraction。As the PMI index and the main weighted sub-index of our province in July are at the highest level this year, the production index and the new orders index this month fell sharply from the previous month by 2.2个和2.1 percentage point, causing the PMI index to fall 1 percentage point from the previous month.The production index and the new orders index remained at 52.6和51.In the position of 7, 7 of the 11 sub-indexes are still on the line of prosperity and contraction, overall, the basic situation of the manufacturing industry in our province has not changed。
Chen Hongyu pointed out that in August, the new order index, the new export order index and the backlog order index of the manufacturing industry in our province fell by 2 compared with the previous month.1个、0.2个和2.9 percentage points, the import index also fell 0.5 percentage points, the finished goods inventory index rose sharply 1.Eight percentage points。At the same time, the provincial employment index and the purchase volume index have been down for the second consecutive month, and the growth rate of industrial added value, industrial electricity consumption and export growth in July has slowed down compared with the first half of the year。These conditions show that some manufacturing enterprises in our province still have reservations about the basic trend of domestic and foreign markets, and they are more prudent to further expand the purchase volume and increase the employment, and the sales link of enterprises is still the main factor restricting the sustainable and healthy development of manufacturing industry in our province。
Chen Hongyu believes that the manufacturing industry in our province should continue to adhere to the policy of seeking progress while maintaining stability, and not shake the confidence of adjusting structure, quality and ensuring efficiency due to the fluctuations of indicators at individual time points。To this end, Chen Hongyu suggested that, first, strengthen organizational leadership, implement the various policies and measures of the provincial Party Committee and the provincial government on supporting the real economy to reduce costs as soon as possible, and effectively help enterprises reduce the burden to enhance the competitiveness of enterprises in domestic and foreign markets。Second, concentrate government resources to guide financial capital and social capital, ensure investment in major industrial projects in the industrial field, and ensure investment in projects under the three-year action plan for industrial technological transformation。Third, the strengthening of the enterprise's market analysis and development capabilities and the supply side structural reform of the manufacturing industry will be combined, through the innovation of products, technologies and formats, to fundamentally stabilize the share of enterprises in the target market。
(Contributed by Asia-Pacific Economic Index Research Center, Guangdong Modern Logistics Research Institute, Operations Monitoring Division)